NO STRINGS ATTACHED NEWS THAT MAINSTREAM JUST WON'T COVER.
On Wednesday the RNC filed a grievance with the State Bar of Texas against Elizabeth Warren for her claim she is American Indian
Source: RNC Files Grievance Against Warren for Claim She Is Native American
New IRGC Quds Force #2 Is Iran's 'Missile Mastermind' In Lebanon
Lebanon has a new Hezbollah-dominated and backed government after three months of protests have gripped the country, which no doubt has raised alarm for both Israel and the United States, especially given West-backed political parties were largely sidelined in the forming of Michel Aoun's new handpicked cabinet, especially when it comes to Hezbollah's top candidate for prime minister, newly sworn in (as of Tuesday) Hassan Diab.
To make matters worse for Tel Aviv, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Quds Force has now named a #2 under Gen. Esmail Qaani — who himself had served as now slain Soleimani's deputy for more than a decade. The new Quds deputy commander alongside top Quds chief Qaani is Mohammed Hejazi, according to The Jerusalem Post, who crucially is considered a longtime "central figure in Iran’s operations in Lebanon".
Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi, appointed as Acting Commander of Quds Force on January 20. Image via Radio Farda/Tasnim
Last August a statement by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) named Hejazi as among three top IRGC commanders working to fast establish Hezbollah missile factories which can produce precision guided missiles, in preparation for the next major conflict with the Jewish state.
Israeli media reports suggest that before entering the Quds force, which is the elite covert foreign arm of the IRGC, Mohammed Hejazi was a key enforcer helping Tehran put down protests, such as the 2009 presidential election mass demonstrations.
These 3 Iranian commanders are working on a secret¹ project with Hezbollah to manufacture precision guided missiles to attack Israel. — ¹not so secret anymore. pic.twitter.com/ZLFsOr9yLz
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) August 29, 2019 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsAccording to a profile in The Jerusalem Post, his career outside the country has been focused in bolstering Hezbollah's weapons capabilities inside Lebanon:
He faded from public view in 2014, and seems to have been in Lebanon during that time, helping Hezbollah stockpile and improve its estimated 150,000 missiles. Al-Ain media reports that he was Hezbollah’s key man linking them to the IRGC. He likely grew into this role after the death of Imad Mughniyeh who was assassinated in 2008.
He helped supply arms to Hezbollah and help it with its precision guided missile programs. These programs have been spotlighted as a key threat to the region and Israel. Hezbollah wants to create local manufacturing bases for the precision guidance that would make its arsenal more dangerous. In March 2019 Israel said Hezbollah was seeking to set up an advanced missile plant in the Beka’a valley.
The US administration has lately sought to pressure the Lebanese government into ensuring no domestic missile manufacturing is established under the aegis of Hezbollah.
Washington has long seen the Shia paramilitary group — which also has seats in parliament and a huge following in the country — as but a foreign arm of Iran and the Ayatollah; however, many Lebanese and people across the region see Hezbollah as a legitimate homegrown 'resistance' movement giving the historically oppressed Shia of south Lebanon a political voice.
Starting last August into September, Israel dramatically stepped up its so-called anti-Iranian expansion campaign inside Lebanon which involved a series of attacks and assassination attempts in south Beirut and the Lebanese countryside using IDF drones.
Tel Aviv officials have repeatedly warned that Hezbollah missile manufacturing plants are a 'red line' against which the Israeli military would act.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/22/2020 - 19:45 Tags Politics War ConflictHard Data Defies Confidence Consensus - The Slowdown Ain't Over
Via Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI),
The consensus is that the U.S. consumer is still strong enough to propel the economy forward even though the manufacturing sector has weakened. This view underpins expectations for improved corporate earnings in 2020. But the hard economic data strikes a discordant note.
In particular, growth in industrial production on a year-over-year basis remains in a decisive downturn, sliding deeper into negative territory. Indeed, the production actually declined in 2019 amid losses in manufacturing job in recent months, fueling talk of a recession in that part of the economy.
The undeniable weakness in manufacturing has caused the consensus to trumpet the strength of the consumer. Yet, the consumer, while reportedly confident, is not spending hand over fist. Rather, weakening sales trends [which we flagged ahead of the holiday season] underscore a sustained slowdown in consumer spending.
Real retail sales growth fell to a six-month low of 1.25% in November on a year-over-year basis, dropping from 3.75% two years earlier. Yes, there was a big rebound in December, but that was mostly due to a highly favorable comparison to the disastrous December 2018 plunge in retail sales. Plus, that doesn't negate the fact that spending growth has been tailing off even though surveys report a confident consumer and the stock market is at record highs.
So, what gives? The lifeblood of the average consumer is job growth, not stock prices. So it's important to recognize that year-over-year growth in nonfarm payrolls has dropped to its lowest level in 2.25 years. Not only that, but growth in total hours worked – which reflects growth in both jobs and the length of the workweek – hasn't been this weak since 2010, dropping to 0.9% in December from just over 2% a year earlier.
Worse still, growth in total pay has fallen even faster over the past year or so than growth in hours worked, slowing to a 3.8% pace from almost 5.5%. As a result, the year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings – the ratio of total pay to total hours worked – has fallen to 1.1% from 1.6%. This is the math behind the worrisome downturn in wage growth even in the face of a very low 3.5% jobless rate that has furrowed the brows of many economists.
For the average American, that sharp slowdown in the growth of total pay limits spending growth. No matter how confident consumers might feel, there's only so much fresh debt they can realistically incur to support even more spending. The hard data shows growth in jobs, total pay and total hours worked are stuck in cyclical downswings. It also shows weakening trends in consumer spending and industrial production growth.
So while financial markets buoyed by increasingly accommodative central banks may be supportive of higher-income consumers, the average American is under considerable strain. Despite low yields on U.S. Treasury securities, average credit card rates have climbed inexorably in the last five years, surging above 15% in 2019. Meanwhile, one third of those buying new vehicles have negative equity in the used ones they are trading in, up from about one quarter before the financial crisis. And farm debt has topped $400 billion, up almost 40% since 2012.
All this is why the boost to the economy from the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot a year ago has primarily aided relatively narrow parts of the economy, such as financial services, residential construction and affluent consumers. But it has not helped business investment or average consumers, making it difficult to ignite an acceleration in overall economic growth.
Regardless of the consensus view that the consumer is "strong," there's actually little indication that the deceleration in economic growth is over. As long as that's the case, the risk of a recession – while not a clear and present danger – can't be taken off the table for 2020.
* * *
Wall Street has prematurely gone all-in on the "strong" consumer narrative at a time when a manufacturing recession has triggered an employment slowdown that could start weighing on consumer spending.
Money managers and leverage funds have front-run a V-shape economic rebound thanks to an abundance of Federal Reserve liquidity.
With the economy continuing to decelerate and no signs of a significant upturn – and the threat the consumer could start weakening – the stock market's most important support - buybacks - are rapidly declining.
If Fed liquidity shrinks, buybacks continue to decline, and a manufacturing recession transmits weakness into consumers -- it seems that a blow-off top similar to the Dot Com era could be nearing.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/22/2020 - 19:25 Tags Business Finance
Twitter Blue-Checks Blast "Private Equity Mutants" For Bankrupting Their Favorite Grocery Chain
The rose-emoji-loving twitter blue checkmarks love complaining about esoteric financial concepts that they don't understand. But as the old saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day, and once in a while, even they get it right.
As the coronavirus spreads around the world and the Davos billionaire circle-jerk enters its second day, the professional outrage mob has instead chosen the bankruptcy as obscure NYC supermarket chain Fairway as the trending topic du jour.
David Roth, a former Deadspin writer who used his platform to mewl about the 'evil' Trump administration in a series of whiny diatribes, lamented that Americans haven't already risen up and dismantled the private equity industry. Especially considering that the PE business model relies on buying companies and then dismantling, or bankrupting, them for a profit (though only a handful of private equity firms are truly that ruthless).
To be sure, Roth admits that the only reason he cares about Fairway going under is because it directly affects him, and all the other NYC media denizens who relied on the grocery chain.
It's one thing that private equity destroyed my workplace and my job. Fair play, it happens. But private equity forcing Fairway into bankruptcy is really going to fuck my life up. This I cannot accept.
— David Roth (@david_j_roth) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsIt sucks how housebroken and Stockholm Syndrome'd American culture is at this moment, but just accepting that every now and then profitable businesses are driven into bankruptcy by private equity mutants, quite legally and quite profitably for them, might be the worst of all.
— David Roth (@david_j_roth) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsOthers made a slightly more nuanced point: The failure of Fairway isn't so much an indictment of the private equity industry as a whole, but rather of the greed and incompetence of managers who drive a thriving business into bankruptcy.
In quiet awe of the private equity guys who managed to turn a handful of beloved and heavily trafficked supermarkets in the richest parts of the richest city on earth and somehow make them bankrupt and 175 million dollars in debt https://t.co/9HZrNH5NsG
— Tom Gara (@tomgara) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThough bankruptcy can help firms cut their losses, and often allow them to escape with profits while sticking lenders with the bill, few would argue that turning a private business profitable and then either selling it to Amazon or taking it public would have been a more profitable strategy.
However, in an unexpected twist, Fairway issued a statement hours after the New York Post reported the bankruptcy disputing that it plans to file for Chapter 7 and liquidate its stores.
New —> FAIRWAY, the iconic NYC supermarket, says it has NO intention of filing for bankruptcy or closing stores. Disputing today’s report in the NYPost. pic.twitter.com/lTpgXS4Q2l
— Clifford Levy (@cliffordlevy) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsInstead, the company said it soon plans to announce a "value-maximizing transaction" that will allow for the "ongoing operation" of all 14 of its stores.
New —> FAIRWAY, the iconic NYC supermarket, says it has NO intention of filing for bankruptcy or closing stores. Disputing today’s report in the NYPost. pic.twitter.com/lTpgXS4Q2l
— Clifford Levy (@cliffordlevy) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsBut one reporter pointed out that Fairway has a strong incentive to vehemently deny the report, since warnings about an imminent move to liquidate might spook the company's vendors, prompting them to aggressively tighten credit restrictions.
the Fairway bankruptcy report & rebuttal is an interesting situation for a couple of different reasons obviously there’s the PE thing But also, these types of reports can actually precipitate (or speed up) a bankruptcy filing
— Alexandra Scaggs (@alexandrascaggs) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe Post did hedge its reporting by claiming that rumors of a Fairway bankruptcy were circulating even amid "ongoing interest" in the Fairway brand by a potential rival. Any potential buyers are probably approaching with trepidation given Fairway's massive $174 million debt load and its expensive leases, including a $6 million rent obligation for its flagship store.
If the company does move ahead with plans to enter restructuring, this would be Fairway's second trip through bankruptcy, which is how the private equity firms gained control of the company in the first place.
So maybe those private equity guys aren't so stupid after all. Either way, we suspect we will know soon enough, because even if Fairway does make it to liquidation, a more competent rival would likely end up buying all the assets and reopening the stores.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/22/2020 - 19:05 Tags Business FinanceCNN Can't Fathom It: Sanders Leading In Their Own National Poll
Authored by Eoin Higgins via CommonDreams.org,
Sen. Bernie Sanders on Wednesday for the first time has a lead in CNN polling of primary contenders for the 2020 Democratic nomination — but you wouldn't know that from how the network framed their coverage.
Sanders supporters took issue with the fact that despite the Vermont senator's three point advantage over former Vice President Joe Biden, 27% to 24%, CNN in its headline declares that "Bernie Sanders surges to join Biden atop Democratic presidential pack" rather than acknowledging the lead. The network adds in the article that Sanders and Biden are "in a two-person top tier above the rest of the field."
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders leads a new CNN poll. (Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)
The disconnect between the Sanders lead — which is just within the 3.4 point margin of error — and the framing of CNN's piece on the poll was noticed by progressives and journalists.
"The title of the article makes it sound like it's a tie," said Sanders surrogate Shaun King. "It isn't."
Law and Crime reporter Colin Kalchember also took aim at CNN for not declaring Sanders in the lead. "CNN still cannot fathom stating the obvious here: Sanders is leading in their own national poll," said Kalchember. "Self parody."
CNN still cannot fathom stating the obvious here: Sanders is leading in their own national poll. Self-parody. https://t.co/T2iPRcfhMf
— Colin Kalmbacher (@colinkalmbacher) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe polling revealed other interesting data points, including that Sanders leads fellow progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) over liberal Democrats by 33% to 19% and leads Biden with voters of color by 30% to 27%.
"Gotta love those Bernie bros!" tweeted The Hill journalist Krystal Ball.
Sanders also leads a new poll out Wednesday from crucial Super Tuesday state California, besting Biden by 28% to 24%, and gained on the former vice president in Morning Consult's weekly early-state polling.
As CNN's Ryan Struyk pointed out on Twitter, polling over the last few months shows a definite trend downward for Biden and upward for Sanders.
Support for Biden in @CNN polling: Oct: 34% Nov: 28% Dec: 26% Now: 24% Support for Sanders in @CNN polling: Oct: 16% Nov: 17% Dec: 20% Jan: 27%
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsRep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the co-chair of the Progressive Caucus who recently endorsed Sanders, celebrated the polling showing the Vermont senator pulling into the lead and urged the campaign's supporters to use the momentum as a motivator to keep working toward a primary election victory.
"Great news, but we are not letting up!" said Jayapal. "#TeamBernie is winning because of Bernie Sanders' bold ideas, steadfastness, and clarity on how we turn this country around."
* * *
Wow, watch @krystalball destroy on CNN this morning 🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/byasf3uTqI
— Eric Blanc (@_ericblanc) January 22, 2020 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Tyler Durden Wed, 01/22/2020 - 18:45 Tags PoliticsUber Is Testing A Feature That Allows Drivers To Set Their Own Fares
Uber drivers are now literally "in the driver's seat" when it comes to their pay.
The company is testing a new feature in California that allows some drivers to set their own fares, according to the WSJ.
Starting this week, drivers who drive passengers from airports in Santa Barbara, Palm Springs and Sacramento will be allowed to charge up to five times the fare Uber sets on a ride. Uber confirmed the new feature in an e-mail and said it “would give drivers more control over the rates they charge riders.”
Uber has made numerous changes in the way it works in California in response to Assembly Bill 5, which requires the company to treat workers as employees instead of independent contractors. Uber has argued in the past it is just the technology platform that connects drivers with riders, but at least 2 lawsuits have been filed alleging that Uber has misclassified drivers.
Meanwhile, the authors of AB 5 have encouraged some of California's biggest cities to enforce the statute.
The fare test is one of several measures the company has taken in response. Uber has also capped commissions on rides across California and allowed drivers in the state to see where riders were going, allowing them to choose which rides to pickup and which ones to leave.
Uber's latest changes set up a bidding system that allows drivers to increase fares in 10% increments. The price includes a base fare, time spent and distance covered and there is no limit to how often drivers can raise prices. One a rider pings the app, Uber matches the rider with the driver that has bid with the lowest price. Drivers who set high prices are gradually dispatched as more riders request rides.
The changes give drivers more autonomy, but could obviously have backlash. Higher prices could see riders move to Lyft, which hasn't made any of the same changes.
Uber will also allow drivers to set lower prices than Uber's price and will allow drivers to opt out of surge pricing. Drivers can pick a fare that is as low as 1/10th of the fare Uber sets.
Harry Campbell, a former Uber and Lyft driver who runs the Rideshare Guy blog for drivers said: “Drivers want to make more money, but now they’re competing with another driver for that money, so it’s a lot more work and a lot more confusing. What happens if drivers start setting fares lower and lower just so they can get rides?”
He continued: "The test program also doesn’t account for quality, because it doesn’t give drivers with better ratings the ability to charge the higher price, as would typically be the case in a free marketplace."
Lawyers say that allowing drivers to set prices strengthens Uber's case to keep employees as contractors and not employees.
Dan Handman, a partner specializing in labor and employment law at Hirschfeld Kraemer LLP’s Los Angeles office said: “It could be a game-changer for that. But whether or not they can also use this to show that drivers are outside their normal course of business is questionable.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/22/2020 - 18:25 Tags Technology Internet
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